The Chiefs are an interesting team in 2018. With no offensive rookies drafted, there are not many new faces but a lot of familiar ones affter having a top 5 scoring offense in 2017. The Chiefs return their big names while adding another as well in Sammy Watkins. I am going to look at all of the Chiefs’ skill players and decide whether they are a value at their current ADP and discuss each player’s 2018 outlook.
Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs drafted Mahomes with the tenth overall pick in 2017 making him the first Chiefs' QB taken in the first round since 1983. Last year, Mahomes only started one game. On the road against the Broncos. Mahomes threw for 284 yards and an interception playing mostly with Chiefs’ backups. The Chiefs won the game 27-24, making it the first time the Chiefs won a game with a starting quarterback they drafted since 1984. In that game, Mahomes made plenty of plays that will make you excited to watch him play again in 2018 (unless you are a fan of another AFC West team). Now with Andy Reid confident enough to trade Alex Smith and hand the offense to Mahomes, it is truly his time. Andy Reid has had a lot of success with many different types of QBs. He made Kevin Kolb look good enough to turn him into Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second round pick, won 5 straight games to finish 2006 and a playoff game with journeyman Jeff Garcia, and he helped turn Michael Vick’s career and life around. With the talent around Mahomes and Andy Reid calling the shots, there is no reason for him not to succeed this year and beyond. According to DHH numbers, Mahomes is currently being drafted in startups at #102 and the 10th QB overall. A reasonable spot, because of the depth at quarterback. Mahomes has the talent and pieces around him to someday be the QB1 year in and year out. It could come sooner than most think.
Kareem Hunt: Hunt exploded onto the scene in the season opener in 2017 versus the Patriots and ended up leading the NFL in rushing yards as a rookie. Hunt is currently being drafted at #14 overall according to DHH ADP and our experts have him ranked #16 overall and the RB8. Hunt is a great player, but does not deserve to be drafted this high. Last year, with no real other RB competition on the team, he played on 65% of snaps. That number is only going to go down with the return of Spencer Ware and the addition three other running backs fighting for playing time in Damien Williams, Kerwynn Williams, and Charcandrick West. I believe Hunt's 2017 is his ceiling. It is a great ceiling, but everyone knows you should sell high and buy low. This is a great time to sell Kareem Hunt at his highest value.
Spencer Ware: Ware is back after missing all of 2017 with a torn PCL. However, before that injury, Ware was slated to be the number one running back for the Chiefs. Ware rushed for 921 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2016, averaging 4.3 YPC. He also caught 33 passes for 447 yards and 2 touchdowns. While Ware hasn't yet practiced, Andy Reid expects him to be ready for the season. If that is the case, he deserves to be drafted much higher than his current ADP of #202. He is also somehow currently unranked in our running back top 60. Splitting work with Kareem Hunt, and being the better goal-line back, Ware will produce fantasy points. But, if something were to happen to Hunt, Spencer Ware can produce the same numbers Hunt did in 2017. Ware is a great value no matter the format.
Tyreek Hill: Hill is currently being drafted at #23 overall and is ranked as the WR12 by our experts. Hill, much like Hunt, is being over drafted in my opinion. He is fast and a great compliment to the strong arm of Mahomes, but when being taken around the same time as guys like Julio Jones, AJ Green, and Stefon Diggs, I am going to take one of the other three every time. Hill will not see the same amount of targets as other receivers being taken around him. He could capitalize more often, but that is what you are going to have to bank on when you draft him over the other target monsters. Hill is great for daily fantasy and best ball, as it only takes one play for him to score, but with so many weapons around him this year, I am not sure he can replicate the 75/1183/7 he had in 2017. The football will be spread around too much to invest this much into Hill.
Sammy Watkins: Watkins is currently being drafted at #47 and is ranked as the WR22 (a big reason being Tim Keller's WR10 ranking). Watkins has never been one to please fantasy owners. Year after year it seems his expectations are set too high simply because of his college career and NFL Draft position. This is the year to own Watkins, as owners are going to want a part of the Chiefs' offense in 2018. With Mahomes having no experience playing with either Hill or Watkins, drafters passing on Hill and taking Watkins a round or two later gets you an equal piece for a lesser price. It sounds as if Watkins is adapting into Andy Reid's offense nicely and moving all over the place. Watkins, who is still only 25 years old, is going to have a big 2018 and beyond with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
Chris Conley: Conley was off to a great start in 2017, catching 11 passes for 175 yards before losing the rest of the year due to a ruptured Achilles in week 5. Conley was playing on 90% of snaps before the injury. He practiced in limited fashion during OTAs a month ago and is expected to be ready for the season opener. The 25-year-old is a value considering he is not in our top 300 ADP and is unranked by all of our experts. He might not be a starter for you week in and week out, but he will be for the Chiefs and should get 3-5 targets each week.
Demarcus Robinson: Robinson showed quite the repoire with Patrick Mahomes during the preseason last year. Some crazy plays happened vs the Titans if you haven't seen them. He also is out of our top 300 ADP, but ranked by Tim Keller at #178. He has potential at 6’1 with good acceleration out of the gate, but his miscommunications with Alex Smith hurt the team last year and cost him some playing time.
Other receivers such as Jehu Chesson, Marcus Kemp, De'anthony Thomas, and Gehrig Dieter all have a shot to make the team, but don't need to be rostered yet.
Travis Kelce: What do you need to know about Kelce? Being drafted at #32 in startup leagues and ranked as the TE1, hopefully you are familiar. Kelce is a mismatch problem all over the field and Alex Smith knew it. It won’t take long for Mahomes to realize it either. Mahomes will be more willing to fit the ball into tighter windows than Smith ever was, so that could lead to more targets for Kelce across the middle. There isn't much to say here. Take Kelce with confidence. He is ranked appropriately and I expect him to match or surpass his 8 touchdowns from last season.
All statistics and snap counts were found on pro-football-reference.com.