Rookie picks are the largest trading commodity in dynasty. They are also in a way, the most predictable. Picks a year away are worth a certain amount, and they only gain value as the year unfolds. This year, a certain pick holds more value than possibly ever before, and that is the 2018 1.01. If you happen to have a copy of this pick, what should you do with it: sell or hold?
The 1.01 this year is tied to one of the best running back prospects we’ve ever seen in Saquon Barkley. Listed at 5’11” and weighing 228 pounds, he’s a prototypical size for a running back. He’s an athletic and weight room freak, squatting 525 pounds 5 times and running a sub 4.4 second 40 yard dash last winter. During his time at Penn State, all he has done is produce. After getting only around 200 touches his freshman year, he took the full workload the next season. He had 300 total touches for 1898 yards and 22 total touchdowns. The next season was more of the same, except he did more in the receiving game. He nearly doubled his reception total from the year prior, going from 28 to 54 receptions. He has the size, strength, and speed that everyone wants out of the running back position. Best of all, he showed it on the field. It’s not just stat lines, it’s all over his film. If you haven’t seen him play, you really need to. It’s an incredible watch.
Since the end of his sophomore season, Barkley has been all over dynasty players’ radar. After the 2017 rookie drafts, everyone knew that he was going to be the consensus 1.01 in 2018. Nothing has changed since then. He did everything that we expected his junior year, and his stock has only risen. The 1.01 has yielded good fantasy players before, but even Ezekiel Elliot didn’t garner this much hype going into his rookie drafts. Saquon is considered one of the most slam dunk rookie picks ever. Regardless of his landing spot in the NFL Draft, he’s more than likely going to start producing for your fantasy teams right away. If you were able to acquire the 1.01 throughout the season and your team is pretty good, it would be very beneficial to stay put and select Barkley. The guy not only has RB1 potential, but expectations.
The flip side to that is getting the 1.01 the old fashioned way - losing. If you’re in the middle of building a young dynasty team and all of the growing pains that come with that, you may have just lost too many games. You came in last place, and the only potential good thing that comes out of that is having the first pick of rookie drafts. This year in particular, that’s great. If you came in last, chances are you are more than a single RB1 away from competing for a title. In that case, it would behoove you to consider trading the pick. Let’s look at some recent trades that have gone down on Twitter:
Received: Amari Cooper, Christian McCaffrey, and the 1.10
Wow this one is crazy. The biggest reason this trade is probably being offered is because of Amari’s bad season. But just last year, he was considered a mid 1st round pick in start up drafts and was fetching 3 random firsts himself. Couple that with a top 5 rookie pick last season in McCaffrey and another first this year, that’s incredible value and a great trade to make for a building team.
Received: Alvin Kamara, 1.07, 2.02, and Trent Taylor
Another good value for a building team. You get an already proven asset in Kamara who is only going into his 2nd season in the league. The 1.07 and 2.02 will yield great assets in a depthy rookie class. Trent Taylor is a guy who I really like and could have flex appeal on any given week.
Selling the 1.01 makes a ton of sense for a young team when you think about all of the value you can gain. Piecing out elite assets is a strategy we all employ when we start looking to future years, and the 1.01 already has elite status based on trades we have seen go down. The very best time to trade this pick is when you’re on the clock, but if you can get similar value to the trades show above, I highly recommend selling.