The NFC South is jam-packed with fantasy goodness and presents interesting buy/sell scenarios for your dynasty leagues. These would be my trade targets for this frothy division.
Buy: Austin Hooper - There are definitely “sexier” names I could go with here, but Hooper presents the best value. Currently being drafted as TE10 with an ADP of 110.67 (per DLF August ADP), Hooper makes for a great mid-round target in tight end required leagues. Coming off a 71/660/4 season in 2018, the Falcons tight end is still just 24 years old. Hooper is in an offense which appears to be stable for the next few years, inside a division where putting up numbers on the scoreboard is a must.
Sell: Julio Jones - This one is largely team dependent. If you’re a legit contender this year, it probably doesn’t make sense to send Jones packing to another team. Teams on the outside looking in - moving Jones should be a top priority. We all know the knock on Jones is his lack of touchdown-scoring prowess. The dude dominates everywhere else on the field, but his eight touchdowns in 2018 is a benchmark he’s reached just three other times in his career. Jones has recently returned to a full-go in training camp activities due to a foot injury which we’ve seen give him issues in the past. I’m still fully expecting another dominant season from the former ‘Bama boy, but this may be the last year you can get top dollar for the Jones stock.
Buy: Cam Newton - I went into this one fully expecting Curtis Samuel to be my buy (would be my 1B option here) until I looked through DLF’s Trade Finder for Newton.
These three trades have happened since August 7th:
Newton has been a top four fantasy quarterback every year he’s played a full 16 games. In the seasons where he played 14-15 games? No worse than QB15. I understand the hesitation with the shoulder injury, but the weapons around him are built for a lower average depth of target (aDOT), yards after catch goodness. Even if Newton’s shoulder isn’t back to 100% health, Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and D.J. Moore can do damage in the short-to-intermediate parts of the field and buoy his yardage totals.
Sell: D.J. Moore - With an ADP placing him at the end of the third (35.17/WR15), Moore is being priced near his ceiling - as if he’s a surefire future WR1. I like what I saw from Moore his rookie season, but the presence of McCaffrey and Samuel limits his true upside/ceiling. Moore will certainly see a bump from the 82 targets he received last year, but he finished as WR36 in PPR leagues. I’m just struggling to see a 20-spot jump for the former Maryland Terrapin.
New Orleans Saints
Buy: Latavius Murray - Here is another team-dependent trade target, but with a routine trade cost of just a future third-round pick or guys like Benny Snell, his value is too good to pass on. If you happen to be in an active enough league, I wouldn’t mind a non-contender taking a run at Murray. You could easily flip him for profit after we see him put up solid RB2 numbers during the season. With Mark Ingram headed to Baltimore, it’s like fantasy owners forget just how involved Ingram has been in the Saints offense the previous two years since Alvin Kamara’s entered the NFL. Across those two seasons, Ingram has averaged just north of 15 touches per game. Although we haven’t seen much from Murray in the passing game in recent seasons, he does have 41 and 33 catch seasons under his belt in 2015 and 2016.
Sell: Michael Thomas - There should be legitimate concern with Thomas for the future in which Brees is no longer commanding the Saints offense. Brees has been the most accurate quarterback we’ve ever seen, and his 74.4% completion percentage from 2018 is an NFL record. Thomas obviously benefits from this, as his 85% catch rate (2018) also tops the charts for receivers with over 70 targets. Thomas has a mid-to-late first round startup price and will continue to provide a return on said investment as long as Brees is there. Could we see Brees walk away after the 2019 season? I believe so.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buy: Jameis Winston - It feels weird having two quarterbacks on here, but the value is there. The fantasy community loves Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and O.J. Howard this year, but Winston is somehow pushed down draft boards. I love the addition of Bruce Arians to this offense and we’ll see Winston making smarter decisions while still being aggressive, helping those with heavy point penalties for turnovers.
Sell: Ronald Jones - If you guys don’t see any more articles from me, just know Tyler read this and fired me. Before I disappear, however, honor my life and find the Ronald Jones believer in your league and pass him off. A couple of positive news blurbs and Jones’ ADP has risen over 30 spots since April. Although I think yards per carry gets overused and oftentimes lacks context, it cannot be understated how putrid his 1.9 mark is. Frankly, I don’t think it matters much at all who the Bucs’ main running back is. This is going to be a poor team for NFL standards, and the fantasy value we’re going to want on our dynasty teams lies in the passing game. With the 2020 class already staring us in the face, Jones could be facing stiffer backfield competition just 9 months from now.