The first quarter of the regular season is wrapping up, so we’ll look at some buy and sells for your dynasty team. Whether you’re trying to grab that title or looking to gain some draft picks for the future, Farukh and Cody will be discussing buys and sells to surely interest you. Let’s take a look!
Jacoby Brissett- If you weren’t lucky enough to own him following the retirement of Andrew Luck, your window to buy him low could be closing. Brissett has looked legit as the starting QB for the Indianapolis Colts, and he could be the franchise quarterback that the Colts have been looking for. He already has two games with a passer rating of over 100, has 10 touchdowns, and is averaging the highest completion percentage (65.2%) this season than at any point in his career. To put that in perspective, in 2017 when he played a full season as the starter Brissett only had 13 touchdowns on the season with an 81.7 passer rating and 58.8 completion percentage. The newly improved offensive built for Andrew Luck is helping Brissett thrive with a strong run game and great pass protection that has been giving him all day to throw. The Colts shouldn’t be in a hurry to replace Brissett anytime soon. This Colts offensive line is young and one of the most dominant in the league. Make a nice offer for Brissett, and you’ll have satisfaction at quarterback in your league for many seasons to come.
Jimmy Garoppolo - I may have never been on the #JimmyGQB1 bandwagon, but at his current DLF ADP of QB20, I can easily get behind his current price. At the surface level, Garoppolo has gotten off to a rocky start with weekly finishes of QB31, QB6, and QB24. Digging a bit deeper, however, and Garoppolo has been much better than these up-and-down finishes indicate. Per PFF, he’s fourth in adjusted completion percentage among quarterbacks with 3+ starts and has dealt with the fifth-most drops in the league. We’re quick to forget that Garoppolo really hasn’t spent much time with his offensive weapons and his head coach is still Kyle Shanahan. I’ll place my trust in Shanny, George Kittle, and whatever wide receiver decides to lay claim to the 49ers’ top spot.
Deshaun Watson - I love Deshaun Watson, but it’s clear the Texans don’t understand the meaning of pass protection. The sacks have been out of control (18 in the first four weeks) and Watson is getting constant pressure and bad snaps from his center. The Texans overpaid to get Watson a solid left tackle when they traded for Laremy Tunsil, but that did not address the rest of the offensive line that have been allowing Watson to get beaten up every week. One of Watson’s features which made him such a coveted quarterback in dynasty was his deep ball, but Watson isn’t given time to throw. Compared to previous seasons, Watson has dropped a full yard in yards per attempt (7.4) and is averaging his lowest quarterback rating (99.9) and yards per game (234.5) so far this season. He gets away with an occasional big play, but Watson’s performance is even having DeAndre Hopkins owners nervous. Bill O’Brien has done nothing to help Watson either, with poor offensive play calling and lack of usage of Duke Johnson Jr. in the passing game as a check down for Watson. If Watson keeps taking hits, his body may give up before his confidence.
Aaron Rodgers - Right now probably isn’t the ideal time to dangle Rodgers out on your trade block considering Davante Adams’ absence, but you should wait for a blow up game and cash out. I was hesitant to go all-in on newly appointed head coach Matt LaFleur and thus far it’s paying off. LaFleur has made it a point to #EstablishTheRun and the Packers’ defense is legit. Both of these negatively affect his overall passing volume. Rodgers has just one top-12 fantasy finish on the year which came in Week 4 in which he had 53 passing attempts. At 35 years old with this current situation, I’d be looking to move on.
Devonta Freeman - If you know a frustrated owner of this Atlanta Falcons running back, give them a call (or slide into their DMs) to help save them a few hairs. Freeman has not been productive in the ground game, only surpassing 30 rushing yards once while average 11.75 carries a game for 3.34 yards per carry. The offense keeps falling behind, Matt Ryan is committing too many turnovers (seven on the season), and the offensive line looks bad. In Week 1 against Minnesota Viking, the Falcons were on Minnesota’s 2-yard line twice, and never gave the ball to Freeman once. So why is he a buy? It’s clear that the Falcons were trying to ease Freeman back into the season after suffering a season-ending abdominal injury last year. He’s seeing more and more touches with each week and is getting more involved in the passing game, a good sign for when the Falcons are falling behind in games. With Jones commanding more attention now in the red zone now, Freeman should have more opportunities to find himself in the end zone. He’s 27 years old and the most likely the cheapest he’s ever cost in his career.
David Montgomery - Don’t blame Montgomery for the lack of production, blame his head coach Matt Nagy. Nagy has been the bane of Montgomery owners because he just refuses to give Montgomery the workhorse role. The bright side is that we’ve seen his touches increase greatly increase with each game, as he accounted for 72% of rushing attempts in Week 4. If Nagy continues to keep up with his vanilla offensive play calling, Montgomery will struggle to have big games. Invest in Montgomery for the long run, as it’ll only be a matter of time before he becomes the focal point of the offense. Matt Nagy’s play calling days in Chicago might be coming to a near end soon if he doesn’t change soon. The increase in volume should bump up his value a bit too, so now is as good of a time as ever to get your hands on him.
James Conner - I’m not a long term believer in Conner and most of us just watched him on a primetime island game in Week 4 go for 125 yards from scrimmage with a score. Another thing I’m out on is the viability and sustainability of the offense as a whole we saw that Monday night. If there’s no threat of the ball being pushed more than 4 yards downfield, defenses will be able to adjust quite quickly. Oh, and let’s not forget his big performance came against the Bengals. Add in the fact he’s already battling knee and ankle injuries, and I’m trying to get out while his price is still relatively high.
Curtis Samuel - The amount of offseason hype Samuel was receiving was enough to make even his biggest truthers say “alright, that’s enough for today.” Fast forward four weeks into the season, and Samuel is sitting all the way down at WR49 in half-PPR scoring. This isn’t just a buy-low opportunity. Taking a deeper look at some other statistics reveals Samuel is looking at some big games on the horizon. Samuel currently sits at third in the NFL in deep targets (more than 20 yards downfield, per PFF). He also sits in the top-10 for air yards and has led the Panthers in targets since Kyle Allen took over for Cam Newton. Look to buy now before his inevitable blow-up game.Farukh’s Sell:
Sammy Watkins - What a downhill rollercoaster of a performance by Watkins after his amazing Week 1 performance. If you haven’t sold him yet, be ready to hit up some potential trade partners once Tyreek Hill comes back from his injury. I originally believed his Week 1 performance was due to his skill and not the attention drawn by Tyreek Hill after watching Watkins put the moves on Jalen Ramsey for a 2-yard touchdown catch. I could not have been more wrong after Watkins was a dud in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions with an inactive Darius Slay. Blanketed by Lions cornerback Justin Coleman all day, Watkins could not find any separation. Watkins is getting plenty of targets by Patrick Mahomes (38 targets through the first four weeks), but he’s being constantly overthrown by Mahomes or just couldn’t get any separation against defensive backs. Back-to-back games with a fumble certainly don’t help either. What should be appealing to potential trade partners is the return of Tyreek Hill, taking some pressure and attention off Watkins. Only 26 years old, he can appear to be a great wide receiver for your dynasty league. Don’t let that fool you. Watkins is set to make over $19 million this year and $21 million next year. I can’t imagine the Chiefs keeping Watkins on that salary. Once Watkin’s career in Kansas City is done, he won’t find a better offense to play for.
O.J. Howard - Don’t panic over Howard if you haven’t already. He’s been barely producing lately but the Bucs offense has been one dimensional so far. Mike Evans has been great too but being the WR2 while Evans garners all the attention has benefitted Godwin greatly. Arians hasn’t always produced big games out of his tight ends. In fact, in his career his play calling had tight ends targeted the least amount (18.7%) compared to other position. Yet for the first time in his career as a head coach, he’s not calling the offensive. Instead, those duties go to offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. The Buccaneers have a talented tight end who is ready to light up the scoreboard and eventually Winston will have to focus on his third-best receiving option when teams are forced to double cover Godwin and Evans. With his recent (lack of) production you should be able to get Howard dirt cheap with the upside of a TE1 coming to fruition sooner rather than later.
Evan Engram - This is based solely off the return you should be able to get for him, particularly with tight end being a relative dumpster fire. What makes me nervous about this offense is the imminent return of Saquon Barkley and the addition of Golden Tate to the offense. Both of them will be taking targets away from both Engram and Sterling Shepard. With Engram, I’d be looking to either upgrade or take a slight downgrade at the position, unless you have a solid starter behind him.