Each week we will make predictions on who we think will potentially outperform and underperform their weekly fantasy projections. (These projections are provided by Sit or Start Fantasy Football using standard PPR scoring.) We make these predictions to help you figure out which players can help you win your matchup and/or to nudge you in the right direction for that lineup decision you’ve been sitting on all week. Let’s see who’s going to be this week’s heroes and zeroes.
First, full disclosure from our Week 15 selections:
Jimmy Garoppolo, Quarterback, 49ers
Week 15 Projection: 17 points
Actual -- 13 points
Phillip Lindsay, Running Back, Broncos
Week 15 Projection: 13 points
Actual -- 3 points
Courtland Sutton, Wide Receiver, Broncos
Week 15 Projection: 14 points
Actual -- 11 points
Austin Hooper, Tight End, Falcons
Week 15 Projection: 13 points
Actual -- 5 points
We went 2 for 4 last week. We hit on all of our Zeroes, but our Heroes definitely did not play like their namesake. Jimmy Garoppolo was just ok as he threw for 200 yards and a touchdown, but the Falcons pulled off the upset on essentially a buzzer-beater. Phillip Lindsay laid an absolute egg in the snow in Kansas City. His teammate, Courtland Sutton, was effective but quarterback Drew Lock did not start finding him until late in the second half. Lastly, Austin Hooper saw six targets in his game versus the 49ers, but could only haul in three of them for 20 yards. This is Championship weekend for most leagues, so let’s get right into it! This week we will focus on:
Russell Wilson, Quarterback, Seahawks
Week 16 Projection: 20 points
Earlier in the season, Russell Wilson was the favorite for the league’s Most Valuable Player award. He has done some cooling off and Lamar Jackson has done some serious heating up. Still, Wilson has had a great overall season throwing for over 3,700 yards, 28 touchdowns and only five interceptions. This week, the Seahawks go up against the Arizona Cardinals in Seattle. Arizona has definitely struggled on defense this year. Not only do they give up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks, here is how they stack up against the rest of the league:
Plays of 20+ yards allowed: 30th
Opponent points per game: 31st
Opponent passing yards per game: 31st
Opponent touchdowns: 32nd
This game is setting up to be a slam dunk for Wilson and his offense. There is currently a four-way tie for the number one seed in the NFC and the Seahawks should easily go to 12-3. Wilson should dominate this game and he will outperform his projection in front of the 12th man.
Marlon Mack, Running Back, Colts
Week 16 Projection: 13 points
The Saints did not allow the Colts to get anything going last week and Mack ended with 11 carries for 19 yards. Definitely not a stat line those who started him in the fantasy playoffs were looking for. This week, if you are still alive in the playoffs, feel safe to deploy Mack against the Carolina Panthers Sunday in Indianapolis. The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points and touchdowns to running backs this season. They also rank in the bottom two in the league in allowing rushing plays of over 20+ yards and 40+ yards. If that’s not enough to convince you, in the last three games they have given up over 187 rushing yards per game. Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, but Mack should have a strong showing. Look for him to beat his projection in a home win against the Panthers who are letting Will Grier make his first NFL start at quarterback.
Derek Carr, Quarterback, Raiders
Week 16 Projection: 14 points
Unfortunately for Raiders fans, they lost their last ever home game in Oakland last week to the Jaguars. They will spend the final two weeks of the 2019 season on the road before moving to Las Vegas for the 2020 NFL season. This week, the Raiders play their division rival Los Angeles Chargers. Derek Carr has only had one game of more than one touchdown pass in the last six games. The last time the Raiders and Chargers met, Carr had 218 yards and a touchdown. In their last three games, the Chargers have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game. They have also allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and in home games have allowed the fifth-fewest completions to opponents. The Raiders will also be without rookie running back Josh Jacobs, so this is not looking like a great matchup for the Raiders. Carr will underperform his projection in a game where the Chargers are a touchdown favorite.
Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver, Patriots
Week 16 Projection: 15 points
Julian Edelman has been a mainstay on the Patriots injury report for weeks. Yet, every week he ends up playing regardless of his game time decision designation. This week, the Patriots are playing meaningful division football for the first time in years. Usually by this point the Patriots have the AFC East completely locked up, but the Bills are 10-4 this year and are just one game behind the Patriots for the division lead. If the Patriots win, they win the division, so I would expect Edelman to be used in his normal fashion. Last week he had just five targets with two catches for nine yards. That is the first time in the last eight weeks that he did not have at least ten targets. The Bills defense has allowed the third-fewest: fantasy points to wide receivers, touchdowns and yards per game. Not to mention that Edelman could be matched up on talented Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White. The only thing that really benefits Edelman is the fact that the game will be in New England. With Edelman’s nagging injuries and his stout defensive opponent, look for Edelman to get plenty of looks but not that much production.