Each week we will make predictions on who we think will potentially outperform and underperform their weekly fantasy projections. (These projections are provided by Sit or Start Fantasy Football using standard PPR scoring.) We make these predictions to help you figure out which players can help you win your matchup and/or to nudge you in the right direction for that lineup decision you’ve been sitting on all week. Let’s see who’s going to be this week’s heroes and zeroes.
First, full disclosure from our Week 9 selections:
Philip Rivers, Quarterback, Chargers
Week 9 Projection: 15 points
Actual -- 12 points
Chris Godwin, Wide Receiver, Buccaneers
Week 9 Projection: 18 points
Actual -- 14 points
David Montgomery, Running Back, Bears
Week 9 Projection: 11 points
Actual -- 22 points
Jonnu Smith, Tight End, Titans
Week 9 Projection: 8 points
Actual -- 4 points
Week 9 was a tough week for us. Even when the stat predictions are in our favor, anything can happen. Rivers and Godwin were both less than a touchdown away fantasy points-wise from beating their projections. In a win over the 7-1 Packers, Rivers did not have to do much as Chargers running backs Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon III had a combined 150 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Jameis Winston threw for 335 yards in an overtime loss for the Buccaneers in Seattle, yet Godwin only had 61 receiving yards. The Eagles defense has also been solid against the run at home all year, but gave up two rushing touchdowns to David Montgomery. So, let’s chalk this up as a loss and move on. This week we will focus on:
Jaylen Samuels, Running Back, Steelers
Week 10 Projection: 11 points
Last week, Jaylen Samuels had eight rushes for 10 yards, but added 13 catches for 73 yards on 13 targets. Word on the street is James Conner will not be available due to a shoulder injury, so Samuels should get the start at home against the Los Angeles Rams. During the last three games, the Rams have been the second-worst team in the NFL by giving up an average of 26 completions to opponents. Going up against arguably the best defensive player in the league (Aaron Donald), look for Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph to get the ball out of his hand quickly and check it down to Samuels frequently. Those PPR points will add up, and Samuels should beat his projection as the Steelers look to make it four wins in a row as they try to climb back in the AFC playoff picture.
(Editor’s note: was written prior to Thursday night’s game)
Mike Williams, Wide Receiver, Chargers
Week 10 Projection: 12 points
The Chargers number one wide receiver Keenan Allen has not done much after his fast start. Since week four, Allen has 61 yards or less in six straight games with zero touchdowns. On the other hand, Mike Williams had his first career 100-yard receiving game in a big win versus the Packers, catching three passes for 111 yards. In four of the last five games, Williams has had at least 69 receiving yards and currently leads the team in red zone targets (11). The Chargers offense also rank sixth-best in passing yards per game. Look for Williams and the Chargers offense to dominate against a Raiders defense who rank dead last in passing yards allowed and who have given up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Williams should beat his projection en route to the Chargers’ first divisional win of 2019.
Kirk Cousins, Quarterback, Vikings
Week 10 Projection: 18 points
Here is a crazy fact that I didn’t believe until I saw it on Twitter and verified it: Kirk Cousins has not won a game as a Vikings quarterback when trailing in the fourth quarter (10 losses and one tie). Obviously, we are far removed from his 2015 “You like that!?!” game, when he led the largest comeback in the history of the Washington Redskins. This week Minnesota travels to Dallas in a potential playoff preview. The Cowboys have been good against quarterbacks this year, only allowing an average of 12 fantasy points per game. They have been good against wide receivers too, only allowing an average of 16 fantasy points per game (fourth-best). With Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen expected to miss this week with a hamstring injury, look for the Cowboys to double cover wide receiver Stefon Diggs and force Dalvin Cook to beat them. Temper your expectations for Cousins in fantasy matchups this weekend.
Eric Ebron, Tight End, Colts
Week 10 Projection: 8 points
Unlike tight ends like George Kittle, Austin Hooper, and Travis Kelce who have been gaining a lot of yardage, Colts tight end Eric Ebron has been a touchdown dependent fantasy option. He only has one game where he eclipsed 48 receiving yards and fellow Colts tight end Jack Doyle has almost the exact same number of targets and fantasy points through Week 9. This week the Colts welcome the Miami Dolphins coming off their first win into Lucas Oil Stadium. The Dolphins don’t have a stellar defense but they have been better against the pass as opposed to the run, ranking twentieth overall. In almost all rushing categories they are in the bottom three of the league. Look for the Colts running backs, led by Marlon Mack, to have solid performances against the Dolphins’ weak run defense. Colts quarterback Jacoby Brissett will be a game-time decision, but even if backup quarterback Brian Hoyer plays, don’t expect Ebron to have a big game. The Colts should excel with the run and not need to throw the ball a ton.