Buy: Keke Coutee - The glimpses we saw from Coutee last year should have everyone excited about his potential in the Texans’ offense. In his first game (2018 Week 4), Coutee saw fifteen targets which he turned into eleven catches for 109 yards. All reports on Coutee’s health and progress have been positive this offseason and Deshaun Watson has raved about him, emphasizing the importance of getting him the ball anytime he’s on the field. One area I’d like to see change with Coutee is his average depth of target going into his second year, as his 5.1 aDOT was second-lowest amongst wide receivers with 40+ targets. He has the speed to win downfield but he can still succeed underneath as a yards-after-catch-monster. In 2018 over 73% of his receiving yards came via yards after catch (YAC). I would be aggressive in sending out trade offers before training camps start in just a few weeks.
Sell: Will Fuller - Through his first three seasons in the NFL, Fuller has appeared in 31 of a possible 48 regular-season games. Despite Fuller’s inability to stay healthy he still has an ADP which puts him inside the sixth round, so he’s holding value. If you have Fuller, I’d wait until he puts up one of his 5/120/1 games. His value and trade price will undoubtedly increase and you can cash out.
Buy: T.Y. Hilton - Although Hilton is currently being drafted in startups as the 33rd player off the board, his trade value doesn’t coincide with his ADP. Scanning through DLF’s Trade Finder, Hilton is routinely going for a single first-round pick. If you’re not close to contending this year and want another lotto ticket in 2020’s draft I can see making such a move. Otherwise, a single first (2019 or 2020) for Hilton is a bargain. In his seven NFL seasons he’s missed the 1,000-yard mark just twice; his rookie year and 2017 with the tantalizing quarterback duo of Jacoby Brissett and Scott Tolzien. Even as he’s nearing the age-30 dynasty death cliff, Hilton has at least two or three years of productive football left in the tank.
Sell: Eric Ebron - The window to sell Ebron is closing faster and faster as the season approaches. Recent blurbs suggest Jack Doyle will be eased back into action, but the acquisition of Devin Funchess in free agency and Parris Campbell in the draft do Ebron no favors. The former Detroit Lion had more touchdowns his first year with the Colts than his previous four years combined, and his nearly 20% touchdown rate is guaranteed to regress. He’s still fetching a really solid return in trades with all of this on the horizon, so get out now while you can. Some recent examples of what Ebron returned:
Buy: Leonard Fournette - If there was a “Last Chance U” of fantasy football players, Fournette would be the first guy I called to audition. Having said that, the hate has gone a little too far and has created a valuable buying opportunity. Less than a year ago the LSU product was being drafted at the end of the first round. As recently as March 2019, Fournette slipped outside the third. His health is a serious concern, but with the addition of Nick Foles at quarterback and a healthy offensive line returning, Fournette has the ability to immediately jump up into the mid-second round of startup drafts. There has been talk from Foles, Fournette, and offensive coordinator John DeFilippo pointing to Fournette being used regularly in the passing game as well, extending his fantasy floor and ceiling. This one could very easily blow up in my face, but I’m willing to give Fournette one more shot.
Sell: Dede Westbrook - The Jaguars were tough to come up with a sell, and Westbrook is here mostly based on ADP. After Fournette comes off the board with an ADP of 33.67, Westbrook is the next teammate to be drafted at 101.33. After him? It’s rookie running back Ryquell Armstead coming in at 166.67. Yikes. Westbrook definitely has his share of believers, so it’s possible you get surprised with your return, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Buy: Corey Davis - Similar to Leonard Fournette, the Davis hate has tilted too far in one direction and gives his believers a great buying opportunity. Despite catching passes from a quarterback who couldn’t feel his fingers and Blaine Gabbert, Davis finished the season with 891 receiving yards, good for 21st in the league amongst wide receivers. His 151.1 half-point PPR fantasy points were also just six points away from a WR2 finish. An issue the dynasty community struggles with is thinking of team and player situations as stagnant. If Marcus Mariota is the reason you’re down on Davis, there’s a solid chance Mariota isn’t the Titans’ starter in 2020. And just remember, if Odell Beckham was traded, Davis can be traded.
Sell: Derrick Henry - I wish I had a Derrick Henry share just to shop it. Recent offseason news puts Henry as the centerpiece of the Titans’ offense. Henry finished 2018 on an absolute tear, rushing for 585 yards and 7 touchdowns in the final four games. The problem with those numbers? They represent over 55% of Henry’s total rushing yards and over 58% of his rushing touchdowns from 2018. If we look at Henry’s ADP right before he blew up in December 2018, he almost had an ADP outside of the top 100. I would be looking to package Henry for an upgrade or trade him for a lower-valued asset and a 2020 draft pick. Either way, the stars are aligning for you to capitalize.