Each week we will make predictions on who we think will potentially outperform and underperform their weekly fantasy projections. (These projections are provided by Sit or Start Fantasy Football using standard PPR scoring.) We make these predictions to help you figure out which players can help you win your matchup and/or to nudge you in the right direction for that lineup decision you’ve been sitting on all week. Let’s see who’s going to be this week’s heroes and zeroes.
First, full disclosure from our Week 10 selections:
Jaylen Samuels, Running Back, Steelers
Week 10 Projection: 11 points
Actual -- 7 points
Mike Williams, Wide Receiver, Chargers
Week 10 Projection: 12 points
Actual -- 8 points
Kirk Cousins, Quarterback, Vikings
Week 10 Projection: 16 points
Actual -- 19 points
Eric Ebron, Tight End, Colts
Week 10 Projection: 8 points
Actual -- 10 points
Another tough week. We missed on all our predictions by 4 points or less. Obviously one big play, interception or dropped pass away and we would have been perfect. Let’s not dwell on the past though. This week we will focus on:
Nick Foles, Quarterback, Jaguars
Week 11 Projection: 14 points
Nick Foles has not played a full NFL game since January 13th, when he started for the Eagles in a playoff loss against the Saints. After suffering a broken collarbone Week 1, Foles was replaced by the enigmatic Gardener Minshew, who quickly became a fan favorite. After going 4-4 in Foles’ absence, the Jaguars feel like they needed to make a change at quarterback and they have 88 million reasons why. Foles signed a big time contract after coming over from Philadelphia; with the Jaguars only being one game out of the AFC Wild Card spot, they still feel they have a chance to win and that Foles gives them the best chance. This week the Jaguars go up against the Colts, in a tightly packed AFC South divisional game where the first and last place team are separated by only 2 games. The Colts are coming off a home loss to the one-win Dolphins and are trying to avoid a third straight loss. Look for Foles to beat his projection en route to a Jags victory.
Brian Hill, Running Back, Falcons
Week 11 Projection: 10 points
Devonta Freeman is doubtful to play and Ito Smith has been put on Injured Reserve. That leaves Brian Hill as the starter for the Falcons heading into a divisional matchup at Carolina. In a surprise win against the Saints last week, Hill had 71 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. That is two straight weeks with a touchdown for Hill. His opponent this week gives up the third most fantasy points to running backs and allows the fourth most rushing yards per game. The Falcons are playing for pride this season as they have just one win in their last seven games. Hill should get plenty of volume and will beat his projection as the Falcons look to make it two straight wins for the first time this year.
Michael Gallup, Wide Receiver, Cowboys
Week 11 Projection: 13 points
Last week, the Cowboys were held under a 100 rushing yards for the first time since Week 1. This week, they should have no issue running the ball as their opponents, the Detroit Lions, have given up the second most fantasy points to running backs and the seventh most rushing yards per game. Ezekiel Elliot is an elite running back and the Cowboys should have no problem controlling the game via the ground. This does not bode well for Gallup and the other Cowboys wide receivers. Gallup has had 16 targets and two touchdowns over the last two games, so it’s time for a regression. Look for him to underperform in a Cowboys win.
Mike Gesicki, Tight End, Dolphins
Week 11 Projection: 8 points
Over the last two games, Gesicki has seen 12 targets, which has been his most in any two game span this year. Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to look for him as an initial read, which has been promising to Gesicki fantasy owners who have been waiting for him to produce on a regular basis. The challenge that Gesicki faces this week is the Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills have been nasty against tight ends this year, allowing them less than 4 fantasy points per game, which is the second best in the league (49ers). After a 0-7 start, the Dolphins have won two games in a row, but even if they win this one, it won’t be because Gesicki puts the team on his shoulders. He will underperform his projection this week and should only be put into fantasy lineups if everyone else is on a bye.