There are generally three types of Buys that a fantasy footballer can take advantage of. The "Buy even though it won't be cheap" type. The "Buy if you're a contender, sell if you're not" type. Finally, the ever popular "Buy low" type. Today we’re going to focus on players that you may have to shell out serious capital for, but will be worth it. These are some players whose value is already on the rise, but the trade market value and ADP hasn’t quite caught up yet.
Quarterback: Josh Allen
Josh Allen’s end to the 2018 season was smoking hot. While he finished as QB21 overall, he finished the season as QB6 or better in five of the last six weeks. Going into 2019, Allen was one of my most popular buys, and if you bought him he rewarded you with a QB6 finish. He went from six top 12 quarterback finishes in 2018 to nine in 2019. So why is he still a buy? Despite the QB6 finish, fantasy owners still do not trust Allen. Thanks to his 23 combined interceptions and fumbles, Allen is seen as a greater risk than he should. DLF ADP has Allen as the eighth quarterback off the board, which is way too low for someone who scored over 17 points in 13 of the 15 full games (20+ in 8 games) he played in 2019. Allen's rushing ability gives him not only the extra height to his fantasy point ceiling but a much safer floor as well. Besides DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals, the biggest free agency splash was the Bills trading a boatload of picks to the Vikings for Stefon Diggs. While I’m not sure this helps Diggs’s value much, it gives Allen a bona fide lead receiver Buffalo hasn’t had since a healthy Sammy Watkins. Even with the addition of Diggs, when the 2020 NFL draft comes around, I still expect Buffalo to use some of their nine draft picks to give Allen more support (perhaps a large target like Justin Jefferson, something Allen is sorely lacking). Plus, another offseason of growth from rookie tight end Dawson Knox, rookie running back Devin Singletary, and any other additions the Bills might make in free agency with the cool $27 million they are projected to have to work with. Josh Allen's 2020 has the makings of the best year of his career and well worth buying high now.
Other quarterback Buys: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz
Running Back: Joe Mixon
I touched on Joe Mixon's Buy status in Cody's (@CKutzerFF) January Dynasty Buys article but Mixon is too good not to mention again. As a 23-year-old running back set to dominate his team's running back snaps, Mixon's price tag will not be cheap, but he will be totally worth it. Mixon finished just outside the top 12 running backs, but he left plenty of reason for optimism. He finished the season incredibly well, as he was RB36 in 2019 after Week 9. That means Mixon moved his ranking from RB36 to RB13 over the second half of the season. Mixon was able to produce despite multiple factors working against him. Cincinnati's offensive line was ranked 30th out of 32 teams last year, with their 2019 1st round offensive tackle missing the entire season. All signs point to a vastly improved situation for Mixon in 2020. Not only should the offensive line play be improved, but there is every indication that the Bengals plan on drafting the Heisman-winning Joe Burrow in the 2020 NFL draft. Mixon's usage in both the running and passing game stand to give him a dynamite floor, while his high-end talent and the improved Cincinnati offense will push his ceiling to league-winning levels. By the end of next year, you will not regret paying the hefty price for Mixon now.
Other running back Buys: Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary
Wide Receiver: Courtland Sutton
I have long been on the Sutton hype train. He was my WR1 coming out of the 2018 rookie class and the 1.02 behind Saquon Barkley. As a third-year, 24-year-old receiver, Sutton is a prime candidate to jump into the top 15 picks of dynasty start-up drafts. Why the reason for optimism? Sutton's production didn't skyrocket after the Sanders trade as many speculated, but, we need to dig just a little deeper to find positivity. Not only was Courtland Sutton the highest graded, according to Pro Football Focus, 2nd-year wide receiver last year (ahead of D.J. Moore), but he led the league in team share of air yards with 42.93% (ahead of Michael Thomas). Furthermore, Sutton's weighted opportunity rating (combines players' team target share and air yards share) was fifth in the league, behind only Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, and Allen Robinson. Perhaps the most important observation, we don't need any advanced stats for: Sutton took massive leaps as a player in 2019. He not only saw big increases in receptions per game, yards per game, and yards per target, but he also cut his drop percentage in half and raised his yards after catch average by over a yard. What is most impressive about his improvement is Sutton did all this with Joe Flacco and Brandon Allen as his quarterback for 11 out of 16 games. With Drew Lock as his quarterback for a full season, I envision Sutton taking another leap forward into the top 10 of dynasty wide receivers
Other wide receiver Buys: Deebo Samuel, Allen Robinson, Tyler Boyd
Tight End: Mark Andrews
Much like the rest of the Ravens' offense, Andrews started the season on fire. In Weeks 1 and 2, Andrews surpassed 100 receiving yards and 24 fantasy points. While he didn't keep that pace all season, Andrews still ended the year as TE5. Some may have difficulty imagining to see Andrews' value going much higher, the sky is the limit. Andrews is attached to a young quarterback in Lamar Jackson, in an exciting offense which - with the Ravens' trading Hayden Hurst to Atlanta - vacates 39 tight end targets. At 23, Andrews' price is already high, but with an ADP over 20 picks after Kelce, it’s actually a discount. Andrews will be the TE2 behind Kittle for the foreseeable future. Go get him.
Other tight end Buys: Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson