Each week we will make predictions on who we think will potentially outperform and underperform their weekly fantasy projections. (These projections are provided by Sit or Start Fantasy Football using standard PPR scoring.) We make these predictions to help you figure out which players can help you win your matchup and/or to nudge you in the right direction for that lineup decision you’ve been sitting on all week. Let’s see who’s going to be this week’s heroes and zeroes.
First, full disclosure from our Week 11 selections:
Nick Foles, Quarterback, Jaguars
Week 11 Projection: 14 points
Actual -- 18 points
Brian Hill, Running Back, Falcons
Week 11 Projection: 10 points
Actual -- 5 points
Michael Gallup, Wide Receiver, Cowboys
Week 11 Projection: 13 points
Actual -- 24 points
Mike Gesicki, Tight End, Dolphins
Week 11 Projection: 8 points
Actual -- 6 points
We went 2 for 4 in predictions last week. We went bold with our predictions for Foles and Hill. Foles was playing his first game since Week 1 and in a 20 point loss had a decent stats day by completing 70% of his passes for 296 yards and two touchdowns. Hill, who was making the start for the injured Devonta Freeman really had a down day. Hill had 30 yards on 15 rushes. Ugh. Regardless, any time we can hit on at least half our selections we can call that a win. This week we will focus on:
Baker Mayfield, Quarterback, Browns
Week 12 Projection: 17 points
It is time for Baker to have a monster game. All this week the talk has been about Myles Garrett and his helmet swat of Mason Rudolph. I think everyone is sick of the talk, especially the Browns players, and they are going to come out with a vengeance. The Browns welcome in Miami this week. The Dolphins have been weak against both the run and pass this year. They give up the second-most rushing yards per game which means Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will be able to establish the run. This will help open up the passing game for Baker as the Dolphins have given up the fourth-most passing touchdowns this year. Baker is coming off his third straight game without committing a turnover and will get on the right side of his touchdown to interception ratio (11:12). Baker is going to blow it up in front of the Dawg Pound as the Browns win their third straight game.
Calvin Ridley, Wide Receiver, Falcons
Week 12 Projection: 15 points
The Falcons lost six games in a row, but have come out of their bye two weeks ago as a completely different team. They went on the road to both New Orleans and Carolina and clearly dominated, outscoring them by a combined score of 55-12. This week, the Falcons return home to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have given up the second-most passing yards (2,909) and allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season (37.1). Julio Jones will get the double coverage with Austin Hooper, the team’s talented tight end, potentially missing the game. All this means Calvin Ridley will feast. Ridley is coming off a game where he had 8 catches, 143 yards and a touchdown. Don’t be surprised if Ridley has a similar stat line this week. In a battle of 3-7 teams, look for the Falcons to continue their improved play in a win versus their NFC South Division rivals.
Chris Carson, Running Back, Seahawks
Week 12 Projection: 15 points
Chris Carson has been a must-start this season as he is currently the RB7 in fantasy, but this week he has a tough matchup. Carson and the Seahawks travel to Philly to take on the Eagles. The Eagles have only allowed one 100-yard rushing game to a running back this season (Week 7, Elliott). They also give up the eighth fewest fantasy points to running backs and in home games have been the best in the league in allowing an average of only 67 rushing yards. The Eagles are three games out of the NFC Wild Card playoff spot, but are only one game out of the NFC East Division lead. The current division leader (Cowboys) have a tough road matchup against New England meaning with a win the Eagles could tie for the division lead. A win this week could build momentum for an Eagles playoff run, so expect them to play one of their best games of the year and shut down Carson and the Seahawks in an upset win.
Noah Fant, Tight End, Broncos
Week 12 Projection: 9 points
Fant has started to show why the Broncos drafted him in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. In his last two games, Fant has 175 receiving yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately for Fant, the Broncos take on the Bills this week in Buffalo. The Bills defense has been great against tight ends. They have given up the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (3.3), have allowed the fewest receptions (29) and the least amount of touchdowns (1) to tight ends. As a whole, the Bills defense is also ranked third-best in the league in passing yards allowed. The Bills Mafia will be in full force for this game and it’s going to be a long day for Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen and the rest of his offense. Fant should not be started and expect him to underperform in an ugly Broncos loss.