Each week we will make predictions on who we think will potentially outperform and underperform their weekly fantasy projections. (These projections are provided by Sit or Start Fantasy Football using standard PPR scoring.) We make these predictions to help you figure out which players can help you win your matchup and/or to nudge you in the right direction for that lineup decision you’ve been sitting on all week. Let’s see who’s going to be this week’s heroes and zeroes.
First, full disclosure from our Week 14 selections:
Kyle Allen, Quarterback, Panthers
Week 14 Projection: 15 points
Actual -- 18 points
Derrius Guice, Running Back, Redskins
Week 14 Projection: 10 points
Actual -- 4 points
Michael Thomas, Wide Receiver, Saints
Week 14 Projection: 21 points
Actual -- 30 points
Marquise Brown, Wide Receiver, Ravens
Week 14 Projection: 11 points
Actual -- 3 points
We went 2 for 3 last week. We will not count Derrius Guice who was injured in the second quarter of his game and subsequently put on injured reserve for the rest of the season. That is exactly how he finished last year too, on injured reserve. Kyle Allen and Marquise Brown were who we hit on. Kyle Allen and the Panthers got doubled up by the Saints, losing 40-20. Allen threw for 293 yards, one passing touchdown and two interceptions, but salvaged his fantasy day with a one-yard touchdown rush in garbage time. Marquise Brown was held in check by the Bills defense and managed just three receptions for negative-two yards. Ouch. Michael Thomas had the best performance against the 49ers defense to date and blew his projection out of the water by nine points. So we definitely missed on that one, but I’m sure none of you sat him. Most fantasy playoffs are coming down to the final couple games, so let’s not waste any time. This week we will focus on:
Jimmy Garoppolo, Quarterback, 49ers
Week 15 Projection: 17 points
Jimmy Garoppolo is having a great year for the 11-2 San Francisco 49ers. He has 3,245 yards, 25 touchdowns and is coming off a game against the Saints where he had 349 yards and four touchdowns. This week Jimmy and the 49ers stay home to take on the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have had the talent on their team but have not performed well at all this year. They are currently 4-9 and can’t wait for 2020. The Falcons currently give up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, the seventh-most points per game and have allowed the ninth-most passing yards this season. There are three teams currently one game behind the 49ers (Saints, Seahawks, and Packers) who are vying for the number one seed in the NFC. The 49ers will not let their foot off the throttle and will dominate the Falcons in a home win. Look for Garoppolo to continue his great quarterback play and outperform his projection.
Phillip Lindsay, Running Back, Broncos
Week 15 Projection: 13 points
The Broncos have been very streaky this year. They have not won more than two games in a row and are three games out of a playoff spot with three games to go. It doesn’t get any easier this week as the Broncos travel to division rival Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The Broncos have had a solid showing the last two weeks as 2019 second round draft pick, quarterback Drew Lock, has led them to back-to-back victories. Lindsay has been impressive himself. He has 817 rushing yards, seven touchdowns and since Week 3 has run for at least 51 yards in every game but one. This week, Lindsay will have the benefit of facing one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. The Chiefs give up the third-most fantasy points to running backs, the second-most rushing yards at home and the fifth-most rushing yards per game. The Broncos are not only looking for momentum to head into the 2020 season, but they are also hoping to play spoiler to their rival. With a loss, the Chiefs could potentially drop to the number four seed in the AFC making their playoff run to the AFC Championship game a bit harder. Even though the Chiefs have already clinched the AFC West, look for Lindsay to run all over the Chiefs enroute to what could be a closer game than experts think.
Courtland Sutton, Wide Receiver, Broncos
Week 15 Projection: 14 points
Staying in the Chiefs-Broncos game, Courtland Sutton may disappoint those looking for him to help them win in their fantasy playoffs. Last week, Sutton had just five catches for 34 yards in a game where his quarterback, Drew Lock, threw for over 300 yards. We have discussed the issues the Chiefs have with their rush defense above, but their pass defense is a different story. They are fourth-best in limiting fantasy points to wide receivers, have forced the third-most incompletions by an opposing quarterback the last three games and are tied for third with the most interceptions in the league. Due to their high-powered offense, the Chiefs force opponents into passing situations and their defense has been up to the task. Sutton has averaged 45 yards in his last three games and he should see targets in this game, but he will not beat his projection. Consider him touchdown dependent in a close Broncos loss.
Austin Hooper, Tight End, Falcons
Week 15 Projection: 13 points
Austin Hooper is definitely having a good season. He is currently third in both touchdowns and yards per game for tight ends, but this week he will find it tough sledding. The Falcons take on the 49ers in San Francisco and the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (Ravens). Not only that, they allow the third-fewest completions per game, allow the fewest yards per play in the league and have allowed only five touchdowns to tight ends all year. Hooper has been injured this season and has played only two games in the last month and a half. In those games he had a combined 49 yards and one touchdown. The 49ers are not going to be a team that one can turn around their season against. They are the leagues number two defense (Patriots) and allow the fewest passing yards per game. Hooper will be a volume-based play this week and look for him to underperform his projection in an ugly Falcons road loss.